America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 25, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.16: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On September 12, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Continues to Dip Modestly…“: The overall Index dipped a modest four points from last quarter to 72, remaining …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 14, 2023 update (reflecting data through September 8, 2023) is -.7535: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through August 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 31, 2023 update (reflecting data through August 25, 2023) is -.7220: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 24, 2023. The CFNAI has a current reading of .12. The CFNAI-MA3 has a current reading of -.13. A …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 17, 2023 update (reflecting data through August 11, 2023) is -.6801: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 11, 2023. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2023: 2.1% full-year 2024: 1.3% full-year 2025: …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …