Monthly Archives: February 2019

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through February 28, 2019

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures.

All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of February 28, 2019.

Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.337:

MZMV chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 28, 2019:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV

Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 5.617:

M1V chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 28, 2019:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V

Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.46:

M2V chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 28, 2019:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2784.49 as this post is written

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of February 28, 2019 titled “Q4 GDP ‘Initial’ Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate) (pdf) of February 28, 2019:

Real GDP with trendline

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2787.77 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through February 15, 2019) is -1.126.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on February 27, 2019 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through February 22, 2019, on a weekly basis.  The February 22 value is -.87:

NFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 27, 2019: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on February 27, 2019 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through February 22, 2019, on a weekly basis.  The February 22 value is -.69:

ANFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 27, 2019: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2792.24 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through December) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of February 26, 2019 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in December”:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2796.19 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through January 2019

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following:

M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.
Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 22, 2019 depicting data through January 2019, with a value of $15,779.1 Billion:

MZMSL

Here is the “MZM Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 3.2%:

MZMSL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 26, 2019;
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMSL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 21, 2019, depicting data through January 2019, with a value of $14,465.7 Billion:

M2SL

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.3%:

M2SL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 26, 2019;
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2SL

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2796.11 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 25, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.43:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of 0:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 22, 2019 (incorporating data through February 15, 2019) the WLI was at 144.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -4.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of February 22, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 16, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 22, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.3, the CEI was at 105.5, and the LAG was 106.7 in January.

An excerpt from the release:

“Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2 percent by the end of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 21, 2019:

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2808.95 as this post is written

S&P500 And 10-Year Treasury Yields Since 1980 – February 22, 2019

As reference, here is a long-term chart of the S&P500 (top plot) and 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield (bottom plot) since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis through the February 21, 2019 closing values:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 And 10-Year Treasury Yields chart

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2791.78 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – February 22, 2019 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

A Special Note On Our Economic Situation

Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness

Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis

Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?

Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?

The Next Crash And Its Significance

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through February 20, 2019, with a last value of 25954.44):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

DJIA since 1900 price chart

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2774.88 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 14, 2019 update (reflecting data through February 8, 2019) is -1.073.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on February 21, 2019 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through February 15, 2019, on a weekly basis.  The February 15 value is -.85:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 21, 2019:  
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on February 21, 2019 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through February 15, 2019, on a weekly basis.  The February 15 value is -.66:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 21, 2019:  
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2773.69 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2018, updated on February 21, 2019. This value is $254,445 ($ Millions):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Durable Goods New Orders

Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a last value of 3.5%:

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From A Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed February 21, 2019; 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2778.38 as this post is written