America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of February 28, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.337: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of February 28, 2019 titled “Q4 GDP ‘Initial’ Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate) (pdf) of February 28, 2019: _________ I …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through February 15, 2019) is -1.126. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through December) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of February 26, 2019 titled “Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in December”: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 25, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.43: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed …
As reference, here is a long-term chart of the S&P500 (top plot) and 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield (bottom plot) since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis through the February 21, 2019 closing values: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 14, 2019 update (reflecting data through February 8, 2019) is -1.073. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2018, updated on February 21, 2019. This value is $254,445 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …