Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 25, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.43:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of 0:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of February 22, 2019 (incorporating data through February 15, 2019) the WLI was at 144.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -4.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of February 22, 2019:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 16, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the February 22, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.3, the CEI was at 105.5, and the LAG was 106.7 in January.
An excerpt from the release:
“Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2 percent by the end of 2019.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 21, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2808.95 as this post is written