Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 27, 2018

The Doug Short site had a post of December 27, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Declined Again in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 27, 2018

misc. note – corrections of blog posts

In the July 2, 2010 post I explained my policy with regard to changing the content of posts after the day the posts have been published on the blog. While I change bad links and incorrect formatting without notification, I believe that changing blog posts’ content warrants disclosure. Over time I have made corrections to content on … Read moremisc. note – corrections of blog posts

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 24, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .22: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators December 2018

S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2018

The December 2018 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 21, 2018 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2018  2754.4 Jun. 28, 2019   2829.9 Dec. 31, 2019  2900.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3000.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. _____ … Read moreS&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2018

Money Supply Charts Through November 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through November 2018

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November 2018, updated on December 21, 2018. This value is $250,827 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2018

The U.S. Economic Situation – December 21, 2018 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – December 21, 2018 Update

Deflation Probabilities – December 20, 2018 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – December 20, 2018 Update

Jerome Powell’s December 19, 2018 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, December 19, 2018 Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2018 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman … Read moreJerome Powell’s December 19, 2018 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – December 20, 2018

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is … Read moreFour Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – December 20, 2018