America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the last post (“3rd Quarter 2018 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s (November 28, 2018) GDP release (Q3 2018,Second Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 23, 2018 update (reflecting data through November 16, 2018) is -.919. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The Doug Short site had a post of November 27, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Declined in November“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 27, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September”: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 26, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .24: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 15, 2018 update (reflecting data through November 9, 2018) is -.998. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2018, updated on November 21, 2018. This value is $248,520 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …