Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 26, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .24:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 26, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .31:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 26, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of November 21, 2018 (incorporating data through November 16, 2018) the WLI was at 144.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of November 21, 2018:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 17, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the November 21, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October” (pdf) the LEI was at 112.1, the CEI was at 104.7, and the LAG was 105.5 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5 percent by mid to late 2019.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 21, 2018:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2665.71 as this post is written