Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 25, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.15:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 25, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .18:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 25, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of June 22, 2018 (incorporating data through June 15, 2018) the WLI was at 150.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of June 22, 2018:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 16, 2018:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the June 21, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in May” (pdf) the LEI was at 109.5, the CEI was at 103.7, and the LAG was 105.2 in May.
An excerpt from the release:
“While May’s increase in the U.S. LEI was slower than in recent months, the improvements in a majority of its components offset the declines in leading indicators of labor markets and residential construction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of June 21, 2018:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2717.07 as this post is written