Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 23, 2016 update (reflecting data through November 18) is -1.064. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 29, 2016 titled “Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September”: (click on chart to enlarge image) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX … Read moreHouse Prices Reference Chart

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of November 29, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of November 29, 2016 (“Consumer Confidence Rebounds in November“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of November 29, 2016

3rd Quarter 2016 Corporate Profits

Today’s (November 29, 2016) GDP release (Q3, 2nd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA … Read more3rd Quarter 2016 Corporate Profits

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2016

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2016, updated on November 23, 2016. This value is $239,367 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2016

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 23, 2016 update (reflecting data through November 18) is -1.064. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The U.S. Economic Situation – November 23, 2016 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – November 23, 2016 Update

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27): – The ECRI … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Money Supply Charts Through October 2016

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through October 2016