Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27):
As of November 18, 2016 (incorporating data through November 11, 2016) the WLI was at 139.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.2%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 18, 2016:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 12, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the November 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.5, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 122.9 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 18:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2198.18 as this post is written