America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2016. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred eighteen CFOs responded during the two-week period ending February 19. Seventy-two percent of respondents are from public companies, and 83% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 24, 2016 update (reflecting data through March 18) is -.77. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his March 28, 2016 post titled …
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2015 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Friday’s GDP release (Q4, 3rd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (last updated March 25, 2016, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2016, updated on March 24, 2016. This value is $229,364 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 17, 2016 update (reflecting data through March 11) is -.651. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2016: (current reading of -.29; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …