Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the March 19, 2015 update (reflecting data through March 13) is -1.007. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February, updated on March 25, 2015. This value is $231,291 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) – … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2015

Money Supply Charts Through February 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through February 2015

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of March 20, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 23, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of March 20, 2015 (incorporating data through March … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators March 2015

The U.S. Economic Situation – March 23, 2015 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – March 23, 2015 Update

Janet Yellen’s March 18, 2015 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, March 18, 2015 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled March 2015 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of … Read moreJanet Yellen’s March 18, 2015 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q4 2014

“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his March 17, 2015 post titled … Read moreStock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q4 2014