Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 23, 2015:

CFNAI-MA3 3-23-15

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 20, 2015 (incorporating data through March 13, 2015) the WLI was at 131.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of March 20, 2015, titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Update“:

ECRI WLI,Gr. since 2000

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 15, 2015:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the March 19, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 121.4 and the CEI was at 111.9 in February.

An excerpt from the March 19 release:

“Widespread gains among the leading indicators continue to point to short-term growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “However, easing in the LEI’s six-month change suggests that we may be entering a period of more moderate expansion. With the February increase, the LEI remains in growth territory, but weakness in the industrial sector and business investment is holding economic growth back, despite improvements in labor markets and consumer confidence.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Remains in Growth Territory“:

Conference Board LEI



I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2112.87 as this post is written