America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
Recently many indicators that are supposed to depict the level of risk in the financial markets and economy have been at or near all-time lows. Among these indicators are those that are broadly based, such as the VIX, VXO (VIX predecessor), St. Louis Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), and Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), as …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 3, 2014 update (reflecting data through June 27) is -1.369. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2014. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred and thirteen CFOs responded during the two-week period ending May 23. Seventy-one percent of respondents are from public companies, and 81% are from companies with more than $1B in annual …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 38th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 26, 2014 update (reflecting data through June 20) is -1.332. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …