The February 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2013.  The headline is “Economists See 2.4% GDP Growth in 2013.” Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. Two …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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Building Financial Danger – February 7, 2013 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 21st update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains  many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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The Bond Bubble – February 2013 Update

In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the July 25, 2012 post titled “The Bond Bubble – July 2012 Update“) yields of various Treasury maturities have started to increase. Here is a chart depicting the recent movements of various (3-month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year …

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February 5 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On February 5, Gallup released the poll results titled “Monthly U.S. Economic Confidence Matches Five-Year High.”  The subtitle is “Economic confidence improved most weeks in January.” Two of the most notable excerpts: U.S. Economic Confidence improved to -13 in January, matching the five-year monthly high set in November 2012. Economic confidence improved steadily from September to November …

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Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – February 1, 2013 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of February 3 …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – February 4, 2013 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of February 1, 2013

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – February 2013

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …

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