America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the fourth quarter of 2012, and were last updated as of January 30, 2013. As one can see, two of the three measures are at all-time …
In the December 3, 2012 post (“3rd Quarter Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this metric …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, last updated on January 28. This value is 230,742 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his January 25 blog post, titled “Median Household Incomes: Down .5% in 2012” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on January 24, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 18, …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 20 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 22, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 1/18/13 (incorporating data through 1/11/13) the WLI was at …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …