Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 30, 2012 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 30, 2012 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – November 29, 2012 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on November 29, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 23, … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – November 29, 2012 Update

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2012

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October, last updated on November 28.  This value is 216,948 ($ Millions) : (click on charts … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2012

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are flagging from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Updates On Economic Indicators November 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 26, 2012: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 11/23/12 (incorporating data through 11/16/12) the WLI was at … Read moreUpdates On Economic Indicators November 2012

Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Atlanta Fed maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described … Read moreDeflation Probabilities

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 23, 2012 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 23, 2012 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – November 22, 2012 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on November 22, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 16, … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – November 22, 2012 Update

Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation,  my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 18 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been listed on … Read moreCurrent Economic Situation