Tag Archives: ECRI

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 18, 2016 (incorporating data through November 11, 2016) the WLI was at 139.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 18, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.5, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 122.9 in October.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2198.18 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 11, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 11, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Inches Up.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the November 11, 2016 release, indicating data through November 4, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

dshort-11-11-16-ecri-wli-yoy-four-week-moving-average-7-03-percent

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2164.45 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21):

cfnai-monthly-ma3-png-10-24-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 21, 2016 (incorporating data through October 14, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 21, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 15, 2016:

ADS Index

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 20, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.4, the CEI was at 114.2, and the LAG was 122.3 in September.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, and the interest rate spread were the main components lifting the index in September. Overall, the strengths among the leading indicators are outweighing modest weaknesses in stock prices and the average workweek.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 20:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2151.33 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – October 14, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 14, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  YoY Highest Since August 2013.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the October 14, 2016 release, indicating data through October 7, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

dshort-10-14-16-ecri-weekly-leading-index-yoy-four-week-moving-average-since-1965-6-95-percent

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2138.83 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 23, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 23, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLIg Highest Since February 2013.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the September 23, 2016 release, indicating data through September 16, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

dshort-9-23-16-ecri-yoy

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2167.77 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.55; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of September 16, 2016 (incorporating data through September 9, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 16, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the September 22, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 114.1, and the LAG was 122.1 in August.

An excerpt from the September 22 release:

“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 22:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2177.18 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 9, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of September 9, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI YoY:  Another Interim High.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the September 9, 2016 release, indicating data through September 2, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

dshort-9-9-16-ecri-wli-yoy-5-67-percent

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2136.91 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.10):

cfnai-monthly-ma3 8-22-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 19, 2016 (incorporating data through August 12, 2016) the WLI was at 137.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.4%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 19, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 13, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.3, the CEI was at 113.9, and the LAG was 121.8 in July.

An excerpt from the August 18 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up again in July, suggesting moderate economic growth should continue through the end of 2016,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “There may even be some moderate upside growth potential if recent improvements in manufacturing and construction are sustained, and average consumer expectations don’t deteriorate further.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2179.07 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 12, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of August 12, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  Unchanged from Last Week.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the August 12, 2016 release, indicating data through August 5, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

Dshort 8-12-16 - ECRI-WLI-YoY 3.97 percent

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2181.74 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 5, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of August 5, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI YoY Highest Since July 2014.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the August 5, 2016 release, indicating data through July 29, 2016.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

Dshort 8-5-16 - ECRI-WLI-YoY

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2181.17 as this post is written