Tag Archives: ECRI

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 26, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .12:

CFNAI_2-26-18

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 26, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .17:

CFNAIMA3_2-26-18

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 26, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 23, 2018 (incorporating data through February 16, 2018) the WLI was at 149.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 23, 2018:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 17, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 22, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 108.1, the CEI was at 103.0, and the LAG was 104.0 in January.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The leading indicators reflect an economy with widespread strengths coming from financial conditions, manufacturing, residential construction, and labor markets.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 22, 2018:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2759.69 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 9, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 9, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  Yet Another Record High for WLI.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the February 9, 2018 release, indicating data through February 2, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2546.75 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .27:

CFNAI

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 22, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .42:

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 22, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 19, 2018 (incorporating data through January 12, 2018) the WLI was at 150.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of January 19, 2018:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January13, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 21, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again” (pdf) the LEI was at 130.9, the CEI was at 116.5, and the LAG was 125.6 in November.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI rose again in November, suggesting that solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have returned to pre-hurricane levels. In addition, improving financial indicators, new orders in manufacturing and historically high consumer sentiment have propelled the U.S. LEI even higher.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 21, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2832.97 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 19, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of January 19, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  Yet Another Record High for WLI.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the January 19, 2018 release, indicating data through January 12, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr. 4.5

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2801.24 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 29, 2017 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 29, 2017 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index…”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the December 29, 2017 release, indicating data through December 22, 2017.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2685.19 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .15:

CFNAI_12-21-17 .15

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .41:

CFNAIMA3_12-21-17 .41

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 15, 2017 (incorporating data through December 8, 2017) the WLI was at 147.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 15, 2017:

ECRI WLI Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 16, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 21, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again” (pdf) the LEI was at 130.9, the CEI was at 116.5, and the LAG was 125.6 in November.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI rose again in November, suggesting that solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have returned to pre-hurricane levels. In addition, improving financial indicators, new orders in manufacturing and historically high consumer sentiment have propelled the U.S. LEI even higher.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 21, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2687.63 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 1, 2017 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 1, 2017 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index…”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the December 1, 2017 release, indicating data through November 24, 2017.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2634.58 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .65:

CFNAI 11-21-17 .65

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .28:

CFNAIMA3 11-21-17 .28

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 17, 2017 (incorporating data through November 10, 2017) the WLI was at 145.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 17, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 11, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 20, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October” (pdf) the LEI was at 130.4, the CEI was at 116.2, and the LAG was 125.5 in October.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI increased sharply in October, as the impact of the hurricanes dissipated,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The growth of the LEI, coupled with widespread strengths among its components, suggests that solid growth in the US economy will continue through the holiday season and into the new year.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 20, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.42 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 10, 2017 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 10, 2017 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index…”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the November 10, 2017 release, indicating data through November 3, 2017.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2579.58 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 23, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .17:

CFNAI_10-23-17 .17

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 23, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.16:

CFNAI-MA3_10-23-17 -.16

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 23, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 20, 2017 (incorporating data through October 20, 2017) the WLI was at 146.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 20, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 14, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 19, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined in September” (pdf) the LEI was at 128.6, the CEI was at 115.7, and the LAG was 125.2 in September.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively. Despite September’s decline, the trend in the US LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the US economy for the second half of the year.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 19, 2017:

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2574.30 as this post is written