EconomicGreenfield

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, with the most recent statement on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands.”)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through the March 23 release (data through March 16 with current value of 125.7), of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of March 23 titled “ECRI Indicators Improve, But Beware the ‘Yo-Yo Years‘” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI through the March 23 release (data through March 16):

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This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through the March 23 release (data through March 16):

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1397.11 as this post is written

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, with the most recent statement on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands.”)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through the March 16 release (data through March 9 with current value of 125.1), of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of March 16 titled “ECRI Reaffirms Its Recession Call With New Analysis“ :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through the March 16 release (data through March 9):

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1404.17 as this post is written

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and have reaffirmed that view recently, such as on February 24.  I featured excerpts from their September 30 statement  in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through March 9, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of March 9 titled “ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Improves (Slightly) Yet Again” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through March 9:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1370.87 as this post is written

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and have reaffirmed that view on Friday.  I featured excerpts from their September 30 statement  in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through February 24, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of February 24 titled “ECRI Defends Its Recession Call” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

-

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through February 24:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1365.74 as this post is written

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession.”  I featured excerpts from their statement in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through February 10, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of February 10 titled “ECRI’s Puzzling Recession Call:  The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

-

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through February 10:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1342.64 as this post is written

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession.”  I featured excerpts from their statement in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through January 13, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of January 13 titled “ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contracts Further” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through January 13:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1289.09 as this post is written

On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth.  I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators.

Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the WLI Growth measure is derived.

Here is a simple definition of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, as seen in the ECRI glossary:

The WLI is a forward-looking composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Updates are available on Friday mornings to members at 9:00 AM and to the public at 10:30 AM. The monthly data starts in 1949, and the weekly data in 1967.

For reference purposes, here are two charts that depict the ECRI WLI.  Both are from Doug Short’s post of November 21.  The first is a long-term weekly chart of the ECRI WLI:

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This next chart depicts both the WLI and WLI Growth measures, as noted, for comparison:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1167.43 as this post is written