The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2023:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.49:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 26, 2023:
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.33:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 26, 2023:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of January 19, 2023, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through January 14, 2023, with last value -.342372:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the January 23, 2023 Conference Board press release the LEI was 110.5 in December, the CEI was 109.6 in December, and the LAG was 117.6 in December.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI fell sharply again in December—continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nonetheless, industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of January 23, 2023:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4029.38 as this post is written