America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010. As …
Two measures of economic activity that I closely follow have been weak over the recent past months. This is notable, as they did enjoy a significant “boost” over the mid-2009 timeframe. These two measures have proven to be excellent indicators in the past. They would be considered “coincident” in nature. I view the weakness of …
Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1. From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy …
I came across a new index that seems interesting. It is called the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator. Details can be found here: http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/# The only comment I want to make on it at this time is that I find it of interest as it employs a different methodology. I plan on monitoring this index. …