America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 25, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 3/22/13 (incorporating data through 3/15/13) the WLI was at …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on March 21, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to March 15, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on March 14, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to March 8, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on March 7, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to March 1, …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 28, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to February 22, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January, last updated on February 27. This value is 216,981 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 25, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 2/22/13 (incorporating data through 2/15/13) the WLI was at …