Deflation Probabilities – December 5, 2014 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 26, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 21) is -1.088. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Money Supply Charts Through October 2014

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 26, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 21) is -1.088. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2014

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October, updated on November 26, 2014.  This value is 243, 806 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 24, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of November 21, 2014 (incorporating data through …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 13, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 7) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of November 14, 2014, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 13, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 7) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

Read more