America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 9, 2015, titled “Today’s Update: The Philly Fed ADS …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 2, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 26) is -1.053. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 25, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 19) is -1.02. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 18, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 12) is -1.009. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May, updated on June 23, 2015. This value is $228,913 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of June 19, 2015 (incorporating data through June …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 11, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 5) is -1.031. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …