America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 11, 2016 update (reflecting data through August 5) is -1.068. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 4, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 29) is -1.13. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 28, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 22) is -1.156. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 7, 2016, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2016.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of July 29, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: A Major Downside Surprise” post of July 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2016, updated on July 27, 2016. This value is $219,754 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …