America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of October 28, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: A Surprising Strong 2.9%” post of October 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 28, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2016, updated on October 27, 2016. This value is $227,278 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 20, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 14) is -1.136. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21): – The ECRI …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 21, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 13, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 7) is -1.177. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 13, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 7) is -1.177. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …