Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21):


The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 21, 2016 (incorporating data through October 14, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 21, 2016:


The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 15, 2016:

ADS Index
ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 20, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.4, the CEI was at 114.2, and the LAG was 122.3 in September.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, and the interest rate spread were the main components lifting the index in September. Overall, the strengths among the leading indicators are outweighing modest weaknesses in stock prices and the average workweek.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 20:

Conference Board LEI


I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2151.33 as this post is written