America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
To date, I haven’t written or otherwise commented about the issue of Moral Hazard. Perhaps the main reason is that I am afraid if I start writing about it, I may never stop… Needless to say, the issue of Moral Hazard and its implications are massive, and just seems to grow with time. It seems …
It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …
A couple of days ago I posted excerpts of a speech by Ben Bernanke in which he outlines various reasons for inherent uncertainty and difficulty in economic predictions and forecasts. It appears that ever since the start of The Financial Crisis, in early 2007, it has been very difficult for forecasters to accurately predict economic performance. For those interested, I have compiled …
My analyses indicate that, unfortunately, businesses will continue to face very challenging conditions. Many already find themselves in rather perilous circumstances, as witnessed by the number and breadth (across industries) of companies experiencing double-digit revenue declines, not to mention innumerable other statistics. On a couple of occasions I have written about the conditions that businesses face during …
This story, “On Borrowed Time : Consumer-Led Recovery” was in The Wall Street Journal on June 9. I found the chart and its implications to be interesting. One is led to wonder “how much gas is left in the tank” with regard to Household Debt as a Percentage of Disposable Income. This is especially an issue with “Income” and …
I find it interesting that the term “Green Shoots” seems to have been eradicated in any official government comments regarding the economy. I am not sure why this is so, as the term itself seems rather innocuous. There must be a reason for its demise, however… SPX at 907.07 as this post is written
For those who didn’t read Ben Bernanke’s Commencement Address to The Boston College School of Law on May 22, I would like to highlight a few passages. I found the passages below informative and telling; I will let them speak for themselves, and might refer back to them in future posts. The entire speech can be …
I get the feeling that many people believe that we will get many opportunities to resolve The Financial Crisis and the associated economic difficulties now present. In other words, should the already enacted interventions, stimulus plans, bailouts, etc. not work, we as a nation won’t be limited in our number of potential efforts and will …
Much has been written in the financial press about the possibility of impending inflation, or even hyperinflation. These possibilities are discussed as being likely due to the “loose” monetary policy that has been enacted to combat The Financial Crisis. If one were to believe that inflation has or will soon “breakout,” one would probably expect gold to perform strongly. At around …
I’m sure everyone has seen the various charts depicting the stock market during The Great Depression to that of our recent period. The comparisons that I have seen show a definite visual resemblance, and perhaps that is what is attracting such attention, as these charts have proven very popular. From my perspective, I think that any resemblance …