America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I find it interesting that certain financial and economic terms seem to have completely fallen out of use, especially in the press. Among these I would include “Quality of Earnings” and “Fiduciary Responsibility.” As well, “Moral Hazard” is still used but surprisingly much less than one would think. It seems to be on the way out. What is the …
The recently released minutes of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting, found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20090624.htm stated the following: “The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. …
In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says …
There was a recent article in The Wall Street Journal titled “Detroit’s Food Banks Strain to Serve Middle Class”: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124718194179420129.html One aspect that caught my attention was the mention of people who are receiving aid for the first time. In fact, the story points out that some people who used to be donors to the …
I would like to mention an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, titled “The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html I found the article does a good job of highlighting certain characteristics of this period of economic weakness. These characteristics reinforce a theme mentioned previously on this blog, that we are in a “new (economic) environment.” …
In previous posts I have spoken of the comparisons between our current period of economic weakness and that of The Great Depression. Those posts were on June 22 and June 15, and can be found at these links: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/22/are-we-avoiding-a-depression/ https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/15/great-depression-stock-charts-vs-our-current-period/ I would like to reiterate my view, seen in the above links, that although our current …
Here are some recent articles in which corporations opine about the economy. In general, in these articles it is seen that these corporations agree with the current economist consensus that “the worst is over”: U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Shrank Least Since August (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_.lKyRsGFJg “Car Makers See End to Sales Slide” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124646313562280557.html “FedEx Sees Signs of a Turnaround” …
I Warren Buffett’s July 9th interview on CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/31836625/ to be interesting, especially when he says: “And it’s very important the economy gets, comes back. It will come back. Government has less influence on how fast that happens than a lot of people would like to hope that it would. But government is a player, …
I’ve recently run across three other economist forecasting items I would like to post. While I don’t mean to overemphasize these forecasts, I do think they are very significant on a number of fronts; and as such they deserve close monitoring and continual analysis and commentary: First, another economist forecast survey that seems generally in …
The latest Wall Street Journal economist forecast survey says “the median forecast sees the end of the recession next month.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124708099206913393.html Meanwhile, I would like to point out this quote from Christina Romer, from a June 28 article, as she mentions the prospects of a “V” recovery: “I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped …