America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On November 25, the Liberty Street Economics blog (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) published a post titled “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” The post examines the inability of the New York Fed, as well as the vast majority of professional forecasters in general, to predict the “Great Recession.” It also mentions the …
On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth. I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators. Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011. The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. …
Yesterday, CBS aired a segment on its “Sunday Morning” show titled “America’s new poor.” While dynamics similar to those discussed in the segment have been noted in previous posts on this blog, this segment is yet another notable reminder of the changing economic condition and the growing need for food assistance. This segment focuses on …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief update to that post. My overall analysis continues to indicate that there is an elevated and growing level of danger. Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems, …
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Turmoil Spreads in Europe.” The subtitle is “Bond Market Selloff Hits Nations Seen as Healthy, Raising Specter of Contagion.” An excerpt: Europe’s debt troubles on Tuesday spilled over to top-rated nations that had been largely untouched by the crisis—including Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and France—in an …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q3 conference call transcript (pdf) dated November 15, 2011. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly results; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts that I find …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.8% full-year 2012 : 2.4% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year …
In the October 17 post (“Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy“) I mentioned in point #6 “…numerous signs of broad-based financial strain among households.” A November 10 Gallup poll titled “Americans’ Ability to Afford Food Nears Three-Year Low” illustrates one of these strains. Here are what I found as the most …