America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 5, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 3-30-12 on a …
Gold has been in a correction (or consolidation) after a very steep rally. It appears as if Gold is at a critical juncture at present. The chart below depicts Gold on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2008, as well as the HUI (Gold Bugs) stock index. Gold, at $1622.80/oz, is currently below both …
On April 3, Gallup released a poll titled “Economic Confidence in March Highest Since January 2008.” A couple of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index reached -20 in March, up from -22 in February and its highest level since Gallup Daily tracking began in January 2008. The index has increased for seven straight …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
In the last post (“4 Confidence Charts – April 2, 2012 Update“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500. Doug Short had a blog post of March 30 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Highest Since February 2011“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University …
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. The first three are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is somewhat rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” report for 1st Quarter 2012. As seen in page 2 of the full (pdf) report, “Ninety-four CFOs responded during the two weeks ended February 24. Over 71% are from public companies, and over 77% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue.” Here are some excerpts that …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February, last updated on March 28. This February value is 211,765 ($ Millions) : (click on …