America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published March 14, 2011. The headline is “Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford, but the Trend May Matter Most.” I find the most notable aspects of this survey to be in the survey detail (spreadsheet), in which the economists “grade” …
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 2-22-11: …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 10, 2011. It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 4Q 2010 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk blog post: “According to the …
Recently Alan Greenspan wrote a paper titled “Activism.” (pdf) While I don’t agree with many of its analyses and conclusions, I am finding it to be an interesting document. On March 4, CNBC interviewed Greenspan. I found one response by Greenspan to be especially notable. The question happens at the 42 second mark: interviewer: …
From time to time I post comments from Warren Buffett. I find his perspectives interesting, notable, and very unique, although in many cases I (at least) partially disagree with his thoughts. His latest “Chairman’s Letter” in the Berkshire Hathaway 2010 Annual Report contained some interesting comments regarding the American economy, both past and future. Here …
Last night, “60 Minutes” ran a segment on homeless children. (A transcript is found at this link.) Of course, the overall concept of homeless children, as well as children suffering from (economic) adversity, is sad and disconcerting. The video is disturbing. One line from the segment is especially notable: “We all hear about the recovery …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …