America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief update to that post. My overall analysis continues to indicate that there is an elevated and growing level of danger. Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems, …
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Turmoil Spreads in Europe.” The subtitle is “Bond Market Selloff Hits Nations Seen as Healthy, Raising Specter of Contagion.” An excerpt: Europe’s debt troubles on Tuesday spilled over to top-rated nations that had been largely untouched by the crisis—including Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and France—in an …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q3 conference call transcript (pdf) dated November 15, 2011. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly results; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts that I find …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.8% full-year 2012 : 2.4% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year …
In the October 17 post (“Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy“) I mentioned in point #6 “…numerous signs of broad-based financial strain among households.” A November 10 Gallup poll titled “Americans’ Ability to Afford Food Nears Three-Year Low” illustrates one of these strains. Here are what I found as the most …
On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …
In the June 29 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. …
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism was released November 8. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Has Minor Uptick: Optimism Index Slight Uptick Still Weighed Down by Dominant Negative Forecast.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 1.3 points in October, rising to 90.2. Here are some excerpts from the report that I …
In the August 9 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of November 7 (“Fed Intervention and …
On Wednesday November 2 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled Press Conference. Here are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable, although I don’t necessarily agree with them. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference” of November 2 2011 (preliminary) (pdf), with Bernanke’s responses as indicated to the various questions: from page 4 (Opening …