On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief update to that post.
My overall analysis continues to indicate that there is an elevated and growing level of danger.
Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems, and seem to be overlooking other problem areas. While I believe that the European debt problems are very serious and have broader implications, (as explained in yesterday’s post “Europe And Contagion – Broader Implications“) the other problems are of great concern as well.
Overall, my analysis indicates that this continues to be an environment of rising risks and therefore is dangerous in nature. As far as the stock market is concerned, the situation as described in the October 20 post (“Thoughts On The Next Stock Market Decline“) still applies.
As reference, below is one view of the stock market that I find interesting. It is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 (through November 17) with annotations by Ron Walker of the The Chart Pattern Trader:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com, annotations by Ron Walker)
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1216.13 as this post is written