A Quote of Note from Pete Peterson

I found the following interview to be of interest.  Pete Peterson certainly has an interesting background: http://www.chicagobooth.edu/magazine/31/2/peterson.aspx Of particular note was a quote from the article: “We now have political system where, unlike what the founders of the country had in mind, politicians consider the position a career and don’t want to lose their jobs.  …

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An Interesting New Index

I ran across the following – it is Fortune’s Big Picture Index.  From the original notice in Fortune Magazine, June 8, p 62, “Our new proprietary index measures seven key signs of economic health” I find the index interesting, and worth at least a quick peek.  Unfortunately, the link provided doesn’t give a lot of …

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The Concept of a “Super Depression”

Please note; some will find this post disturbing I would like to call your attention to the article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” which is found under the “Investor” heading here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/prosperitybypencom-directory/ With the S&P500 currently at 893.72, I am sure that many will find the mere notion of the 100 level to be highly …

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How Can We Go Into a Depression?

As previously indicated, in this post: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/19/current-economic-forecasts/ most mainstream economic forecasters as well as many other financial professionals believe that “the worst is behind us” as far as economic damage.   It certainly would be nice if this were the case. However, for a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that while it is possible that …

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Are We Avoiding a Depression?

Perhaps the most common refrain heard with regard to our current economic situation, and why it won’t become a Depression, is that we as a nation have been proactive and aggressive in “managing” this period of economic weakness. This theory, more or less, has the following generalized (and summarized) structure: There has been rigorous research conducted on the …

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Are We In a Depression?

One of the questions that seems to be popular since the economic events of 2008 is whether we are in a Depression.  As such, for the next few posts I will be commenting on the topic. Here are two links that indicate that we are not in a Depression: http://seekingalpha.com/article/142831-great-depression-ii-it-s-not-even-close?source=email http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/update-what-is-depression.html Yet, as indicated in this …

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The Global Economic Future

One of the questions I received when I first started this blog is why I didn’t choose to discuss the global economic future, as opposed to America’s Economic Future. This is a good question.  In essence, I do believe its focus is on the global economic future, as not only is the United States (obviously) the …

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Current Economic Forecasts

It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …

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Managing Economic Uncertainty

A couple of days ago I posted excerpts of a speech by Ben Bernanke in which he outlines various reasons for inherent uncertainty and difficulty in economic predictions and forecasts. It appears that ever since the start of The Financial Crisis, in early 2007, it has been very difficult for forecasters to accurately predict economic performance.   For those interested, I have compiled …

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