America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The December 2024 Livingston Survey published on December 20, 2024 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2024 6050.00 June 30, 2025 6260.00 Dec. 31, 2025 6489.90 Dec. 31, 2026 6920.90 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. _____ I post …
On Wednesday, December 18, 2024 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2024 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 13, 2024, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 12, 2024: Year 2024 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $233.62/share …
This post is a brief update to various past commentaries concerning the stock market bubble, most notably the February 2020 page titled “The Immense Stock Market Bubble And Characteristics.” The stock market bubble continues to grow in size, which is highly notable given the enormous size of the bubble during February 2020. My analyses indicate …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of December 12, 2024 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 12, 2024 update (reflecting data through December 6, 2024) is -.5299: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
On December 10, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 Economic Index Shifts Higher on CEO Expectations and Plans for 2025“: The overall Index rose 12 points from last quarter to 91, the highest level in …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 10, 2024. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Jumps Above 50-Year Average in November.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 8.0 points to 101.7. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree …