America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
On November 1, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “Ahead of Election, Americans’ Confidence in Economy Steady.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy has been stable for three months since the Democratic National Convention held in late July helped boost assessments of the economy. The index averaged -11 in October, similar …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 12, 2016, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2016.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Doug Short had a blog post of October 28, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment : October Final Declines“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of October 28, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: A Surprising Strong 2.9%” post of October 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 28, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his October 27, 2016 post titled “Real Median Household Income: Weak Momentum in 2016” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2016, updated on October 27, 2016. This value is $227,278 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …