On November 1, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “Ahead of Election, Americans’ Confidence in Economy Steady.”
Notable excerpts include:
Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy has been stable for three months since the Democratic National Convention held in late July helped boost assessments of the economy. The index averaged -11 in October, similar to the -11 and -10 recorded in August and September, respectively.
Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.
In October, about as many Americans said the economy is “excellent” or “good” (27%) as said the economy is “poor” (29%), resulting in a current conditions score of -2. Americans’ assessments of the current state of the economy are about as positive as they have been in the past eight years; the best score for this index component is +1, recorded in January 2015.
Americans remain much more negative about the direction the economy is headed. Thirty-eight percent believe the economy is “getting better” and 58% say it is “getting worse,” resulting in an economic outlook score of -20. This index component has fallen sharply since reaching its post-recession high of +5 in January 2015, though it has held steady over the past several months.
Here is an accompanying chart of the two components of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index, discussed above:
Here is an accompanying chart of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index:
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2111.72 as this post is written