America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 13, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 7, 2017) is -1.369. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Gaining Momentum?” One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 29. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 94 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 13, 2017. The headline is “Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 6, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 31, 2017) is -1.363. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many are still indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or other worrisome trends, and a …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …