America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that …
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled October 2019 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of October 30, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.308: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of October 30, 2019 titled “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.9%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) (pdf) of October 30, 2019: _________ I post various indicators and …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 24, 2019 update (reflecting data through October 18, 2019) is -1.215. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 28, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.45: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2019, updated on October 24, 2019. This value is $248,164 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 17, 2019 update (reflecting data through October 11, 2019) is -1.184. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …