Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The October 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 28, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.45:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 28, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.24:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 28, 2019;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of October 25, 2019 (incorporating data through October 18, 2019) the WLI was at 144.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.2%.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 19, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the October 18, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.9, the CEI was at 106.4, and the LAG was 108.3 in September.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI declined in September because of weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes. Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3040.39 as this post is written