America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled July 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 29, 2021 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Inches Up To 6.5%…,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) of July 29, 2021: _________ I post various indicators and …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2021, updated on July 27, 2021. This value is $257,627 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 22, 2021 update (reflecting data through July 16, 2021) is -.9812: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .09: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of July 19, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
Today (July 19, 2021) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) declared the end of the recession that began in February 2020. [That declaration of recession was highlighted in the post titled “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC.”] Today’s announcement is seen on the NBER page …