America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .37: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 17, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 16, 2021: Year 2021 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $202.06/share …
The December 2021 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 17, 2021 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2021 4694.6 June 30, 2022 4809.7 Dec. 31, 2022 4840.0 Dec. 29, 2023 5000.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On Wednesday, December 15, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 16, 2021 update (reflecting data through December 10, 2021) is -.8564: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 14, 2021. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Up Slightly in November.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .2 points to 98.4. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): Owners …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …