America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 6, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2022, and were last updated as of April 28, 2022. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.181: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 28, 2022 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -1.4%, Worse Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of April 28, 2022: _________ I post various indicators …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2022, updated on April 26, 2022. This value is $275,013 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 25, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .44: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 21, 2022 update (reflecting data through April 15, 2022) is -1.2248: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 18, 2022, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …