America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through May 8, 2017) from Doug Short’s blog …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On May 2, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Falls in April, but Still Positive.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ economic confidence weakened slightly in April, but they remain positive about the current state of the U.S. economy. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +5 in April, down four points from …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of April 28, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
Doug Short had a blog post of April 28, 2017 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: April Final Continues Positive Trend“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Drops to .7 percent, Disappoints Forecast” post of April 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2017, updated on April 27, 2017. This value is $238,713 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 94 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many are still indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or other worrisome trends, and a …