America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years, even during the longest U.S. economic expansion that recently ended. [The June 8 NBER BCDC declaration of U.S. recession …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of June 30, 2020 (“Consumer Confidence Up in June“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy. …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May 2020, updated on June 25, 2020. This value is $194,419 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2020:Q1). The last value (as of the June 11, 2020 update) is $110.787238 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 11, 2020 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $7.4 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
Yesterday (June 8, 2020) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) declared a recession. This announcement is seen on the NBER page titled “Determination of the February 2020 Peak in US Economic Activity.” An excerpt: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology …