The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.
I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years, even during the longest U.S. economic expansion that recently ended. [The June 8 NBER BCDC declaration of U.S. recession is described in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post.]
These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.
All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Housing starts (last updated June 17, 2020):
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, July 15, 2020.
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The Federal Deficit (last updated February 12, 2020):
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, July 15, 2020.
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Federal Net Outlays (last updated February 12, 2020):
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, July 15, 2020.
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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated March 26, 2020):
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, July 15, 2020.
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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 10, 2020):
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, July 15, 2020.
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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 10, 2020):
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, July 15, 2020.
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M1 Money Multiplier Proxy (last updated July 1, 2020):
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, July 15, 2020.
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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated July 2, 2020):
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, July 15, 2020.
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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated July 2, 2020):
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, July 15, 2020.
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated June 22, 2020):
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, July 15, 2020.
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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3226.56 as this post is written