America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Advisor Perspectives had a post of March 31, 2023 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops for First Time in Four Months“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be …
On March 31, 2023 Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Pessimism Persists, With Inflation Still Key Concern.” Notable excerpts include: The American public continues to rate the U.S. economy in mostly negative terms in March, with 83% describing current economic conditions as “only fair” or “poor.” Just 16% consider them “excellent” or “good.” Furthermore, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2023, updated on March 24, 2023. This value is $268,387 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through March 17, 2023) from the Advisor Perspectives’ …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2022:Q4). The last value (as of the March 9, 2023 update) is $147.707020 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 9, 2023 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $2.9 Trillion in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of February 28, 2023 (“Consumer Confidence Declines Again in February“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …