America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 28, 2023, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of April 28, 2023 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Inches Up in April, Consistent with Forecast“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2023, and were last updated as of April 27, 2023. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.373: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 27, 2023 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.1%, Slower Than Expected” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) of April 27, 2023: _________ I post various indicators …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2023, updated on April 26, 2023. This value is $276,405 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …