America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Brooking Institution released a study on July 18, 2013 titled “2013 Economic Values Survey.” I found various aspects of the survey’s results to be notable, especially those relating to “Perceptions Of Economic Mobility” (among various generations) and capitalism. As well, the roll of government is included. _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …
The topic of deflation is one that I feel lacks recognition, especially since my analyses indicate that deflation is on the horizon and that many signs of “deflationary pressures” exist, some of which I wrote of in the post of June 10, “The Prospect Of Deflation.” [note: to clarify, for purposes of this discussion, when …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On July 2, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Holds Near Five-Year High in June.” The subtitle is “Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is -8 for June, similar to -7 in May.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the economy held steady in June, despite U.S. stock prices registering a monthly decline for the …
This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog. The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his July 1, 2013 post titled “Update: …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 49 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise …
Doug Short had a blog post of June 25 (“Consumer Confidence Beats Expectations, Highest Since January 2008“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May, last updated on June 25. This value is 231,030 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 25 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …