America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of June 20 …
Deflation and the potential for such a condition to develop is currently a topic of paramount importance, for a variety of reasons. [note: to clarify, for purposes of this discussion, when I mention “deflation” I am referring to the CPI going below zero.] As one can see in the various professional economic forecasts mentioned in this …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 1Q 2013“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2013:Q1). The last value (as of June 6, 2013) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of June 6, 2013 titled “Fed’s Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.3 Trillion from Peak, Record Household Net Worth.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 1Q 2013 report: (click on …
On June 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Continues to Improve in May” The subtitle is “Upper-income Americans’ Confidence enters positive territory.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index surged to -7 in May, the highest monthly score since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in 2008. The current score surpasses the …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his May 29 blog post, titled “Real Median Household Incomes: Up .5% in April But Only a Fractional .6% Year-over-Year” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April, last updated on May 28. This value is 222,557 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
Doug Short had a blog post of May 28 (“Consumer Confidence Beats Expectations, Now at a 5-Year High“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …