Employment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2019

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2019

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 26, 2019

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of April 26, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.333: Data Source: FRED, … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 26, 2019

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2019

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of April 26, 2019 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.2%, Surprises Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) (pdf) of April 26, 2019: _________ I … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2019

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of April 25, 2019, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2019

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2019, updated on April 25, 2019. This value is $258,524 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2019

Money Supply Charts Through March 2019

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through March 2019

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – April 2019

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others … Read moreCharts Indicating Economic Weakness – April 2019

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read moreAverage Hourly Earnings Trends

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of March 29, 2019

The Doug Short site had a post of March 29, 2019 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: March Final Rebounded“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of March 29, 2019